Credit Risk and Bank Performance in Emerging Markets. A Dual Protocol Systematic Review with Evidence from Pakistan

Abstract

This paper sets forth the methodological framework of a systematic literature review investigating the link between credit risk management and bank performance, with a special emphasis on emerging markets and the Islamic banking system within Pakistan. Based on the PRISMA 2020 reporting protocol (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses), the literature review process extracted evidence from the initial 1350 identified literature databases, identifying 247 relevant studies after a detailed process of screening and deduplication. An update performed in 2025 and based on an integrative narrative strand, led to a final evidence base of 281 studies, with a chronological scope from the earliest model of credit risk measurement, the Altman Z-score model of 1968, to the use of machine learning techniques in the area in the latest period. This methodology merges systematicity and contextual sensitivity, utilizing Zotero reference management software to support deduplication, thematic labeling, and structured data extraction organized around 6 key themes: credit risk measurement techniques; the relationship between bank performance and risk; macroeconomic influences on the same topic; Islamic banking perspective; institutional specific studies focused on Pakistan; and technical/methodological developments in this topic. Quality assessment was applied along three aspects: technical/methodological robustness, context relevance, and influence in the academic field, adopted from existing management-related systematic review frameworks. This document specifies methods to account for publication bias, geographical bias, conceptual bias, researcher bias, and integrative bias. With documentation of the systematic literature search, selection criteria, screening process, quality assessment methodology, and theme extraction strategy, this paper contributes to the debate over the adaptability of medical systematic review methodologies to a context of information retrieval specific to banking and finance research.