Unraveling Export Performance Trends for Pakistan Under Military and Non-Military Regimes

Abstract

This study evaluates Pakistan’s export performance under military and non-military political regimes from 1977 to 2024, with a special focus on export trends, structural composition, diversification, and export competitiveness. This study applies a descriptive and comparative methodology, and examines export dynamics of military and nonmilitary regimes by using indicators (exports as a percentage of GDP, trade deficit), export composition, export diversification matrix such as (number of exported products, HHI Index and Index of export market penetration), and Structural competiveness indicators (trade openness, real effective exchange rate (REER), foreign direct investment (FDI), and governance standards). The study results reveal that while military regimes show relatively stronger export growth, policy consistency, and higher FDI inflows, these gains were largely short-based and not sufficiently generate long term structural transformation. On the other hand, nonmilitary (i.e. democratic) regimes were more consistent with policy reforms. However, due to political instability, poor institutional performance and external shocks, Pakistan’s export performance was highly volatile. The study further demonstrates that Pakistan's export growth was largely dependent on market expansion rather than product diversification, and that Pakistan's exports consist mostly of low-value, traditional manufactured and primary goods. The study concludes that Pakistan’s export poor performance shows regime changes but is also caused by deep-rooted structural and institutional constraints. This study offers policy recommendations emphasizing institutional continuity, export diversification, exchange rate competitiveness, and governance reforms to achieve sustainable export-led growth.